Swine flu is spreading more widely than official figures indicate, with outbreaks in Europe and Asia showing it’s gained a foothold in at least three regions.

One in 20 cases is being officially reported in the U.S., meaning more than 100,000 people have probably been infected nationwide with the new H1N1 flu strain, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the U.K., the virus may be 300 times more widespread than health authorities have said, the Independent on Sunday reported yesterday.

Read the rest of the Bloomberg story.

From Centers for Disease Control Briefing this afternoon:

Dr. Anne Schuchat:  … My first statement to you is the H1N1 is not going away, despite what you may have heard. As you know, the World Health Assembly is convening from Geneva, and the Department of Health and Human Services is at the Assembly. We are expecting the H1N1 issue to dominate the meeting, and I wanted to alert you to Director General Margaret Chan’s statement from the W.H.O. She said that influenza viruses are the ultimate moving target, and I think that really captures that scenario we’re coping with right now. This novel H1N1 virus is still circulating in the United States. People are continuing to get sick, to get hospitalized, and unfortunately, to die. At this point, there are six deaths that have been reported officially. And, you know, we feel for the families that are experiencing those losses. …

Dr. Schuchat was asked if H1N1 has a higher death rate than seasonal influenza:

Dr. Schuchat:   … You know, the death rate – are we seeing more fatalities than we would expect with seasonal influenza, or a higher proportion of illness than with seasonal influenza?  I think our best estimate right now is that the fatality is likely a little bit higher than seasonal influenza, but not necessarily substantially higher.  On the other hand, the hospitalizations that we’re tracking have this disproportionate occurrence among younger persons.  That’s very unusual to have, you know, so many people under 20 requiring hospitalization and in some of those intensive care units.  We’re trying to actively investigate those and get better characteristics of what the illness looks like. …

• Swine Flu Kills New Yorker, Virus Not Going Away – Bloomberg
• U.S. Health Officials Troubled by New Flu Pattern – Reuters
• Japan Acts to Contain Swine Flu Outbreak – New York Times

WHO head indicates full flu pandemic to be declared – Reuters

The World Health Organization is likely to raise its flu alert to the top of its six-point scale and declare a pandemic, its director-general indicated in an interview published on Monday.

In remarks setting the scene for another alert increase, but without saying when, WHO chief Margaret Chan warned against over-confidence following a stabilization in the number of new cases of the H1N1 strain that has proved deadly in Mexico.

“Level 6 does not mean, in any way, that we are facing the end of the world. It is important to make this clear because (otherwise) when we announce level 6 it will cause an unnecessary panic,” she told Spanish newspaper El Pais.

• Mexico to begin lifting flu curbs – BBC
• Health officials are wary but hopeful – Washington Post
• Goes person to pig – Could it jump back? – Associated Press

Now that the swine flu virus has passed from a farmworker to pigs, could it jump back to people? The question is important, because crossing species again could make it more deadly.

The never-before-seen virus was created when genes from pig, bird and human viruses mixed together inside a pig. Experts fear the virus that has gone from humans back into pigs in at least one case could mutate further before crossing back into humans again. But no one can predict what will happen.

“Could it gain virulence? Yes,” Juan Lubroth, an animal health expert at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome, said Sunday. “It could also become milder. It could go in both directions.”

• Key developments on Swine Flu worldwide – Associated Press

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The gist of the story is to lay out the scenarios for where H1N1 could go from here.  Written by Reuters’ Health and Science Editor Maggie Fox, it’s what I want as far as information goes.

Flu prompts shutdowns in Texas, Mexico – New York Times

This blog has short, informative posts throughout the day on what’s going on around the world with the flu.

• Mexico: Number of new cases stabilizing – Houston Chronicle

Jose Angel Cordova says he hopes that trend will continue and that a vaccine will be available in six months.

He says Mexico has 260 confirmed swine flu cases, including 12 deaths. But he says he’ll stop updating his count of suspected cases and deaths, which had stood at about 2,500 and 168.

• Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild – Los Angeles Times

Flu viruses are known to be notoriously unpredictable, and this strain could mutate at any point — becoming either more benign or dangerously severe. But mounting preliminary evidence from genetics labs, epidemiology models and simple mathematics suggests that the worst-case scenarios are likely to be avoided in the current outbreak.

“This virus doesn’t have anywhere near the capacity to kill like the 1918 virus,” which claimed an estimated 50 million victims worldwide, said Richard Webby, a leading influenza virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn.

• EU Warns Against Swine Flu Panic – BBC