Just a few days after OPEC projected oil at $90 per barrel in the first quarter of 2010, Goldman Sachs today is saying essentially the same thing:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its forecast for U.S. benchmark oil by 31 percent to $85 a barrel for the end of 2009 and predicted further gains next year as demand recovers and supplies shrink.
“As the financial crisis eases, an energy shortage lies ahead,” Goldman analysts Jeffrey Currie in London and David Greely in New York said in a report e-mailed today. The bank set a 12-month price target of $90 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude, up from $70, and introduced a forecast of $95 for the end of 2010.
This isn’t surprising. OPEC producers scaled back production some time ago in the face of a supply glut brought on by the worldwide recession. OPEC’ers are basically saying, we don’t produce more until we make up for the ridiculously cheap prices over the last year or so.
Oil prices could reach $80-$90 a barrel by early next year, but OPEC will not increase its output until a huge amount of over-supply has been absorbed, the group’s Secretary General said on Tuesday.
OPEC officials have been nudging up their price aspirations since Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said last week an oil price of around $75 could be achieved later this year and would not undermine a tentative global economic recovery.
“The price will go to $80-$90 maybe at the beginning of 2010,” OPEC’s Abdullah al-Badri told the Reuters Global Energy Summit.
The highlights from the April Oil Market Report from the IEA:
- Forecast 2009 global oil demand is revised down by 1.0 mb/d after a reassessment of GDP assumptions and much lower-than-expected 1Q09 demand data.
- Benchmark crude prices exceeded $50/bbl for the first time in four months as more bullish sentiment entered financial markets in late March/early April.
- Global oil supply fell by 400 kb/d in March, to 83.4 mb/d.
- OPEC crude supply in March averaged 27.8 mb/d, down 235 kb/d versus February. … Supplies stand at five-year lows.