Another Troubling Employment Number
One hears a great deal about just what it will take for the U.S. stock market to rally and head on to another leg up from the March 2009 lows. Along with a Chinese soft landing, stabilization of the Eurozone, and passage of FinReg, there is a constant and well-deserved preoccupation with U.S. employment. The last two releases by the federal government – May unemployment and today’s weekly claims number were either bad or lackluster, depending upon your disposition. For some reason tonight, I thought to take a look at the Mass Layoff numbers for the last five years — I wanted an idea of whether or not the big layoffs, such as plant closings or major downsizings were subsiding since what was probably the peak of the recession in early 2009.
As you can see, in March 2009 Mass Layoff Events hit a peak just as you’ll remember the stock market bottomed. Unfortunately, they are ticking up once again – and the market is in the midst of several weeks of volatility. I’m not making a direct cause and effect statement here, but I am wondering if this employment statistic, along with the other dreary numbers, supports one argument out there that the growth we’ve experienced has been merely the restocking of depleted inventories.
Daily Graphic: Mass Layoffs During the U.S. Recession 2008-09
Statistics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
As defined by the Dept. of Labor, a mass layoff is a situation in which 50 or more persons have filed initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits against an establishment during a consecutive 5-week period.
Sign of the Beast! 6.66 Million Receiving Jobless Benefits
Headline is for the End Times Asshats.
From Bloomberg:
More Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment insurance last week, and the total number of workers receiving benefits rose to a record, signs the job market continues to weaken even as the economic slump eases.
Initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 631,000 in the week ended May 16, from a revised 643,000 the prior week that was higher than initially estimated, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The total number of people collecting benefits rose to 6.66 million, a record reading for a 16th straight week, and a sign companies are still not hiring.
Daily Graphic: Unemployment During the Recession – EU & U.S.
Data from Eurostats. The title of the graph may be a bit misleading. You can break down EU unemployment by gender in Eurostats. This graph is men and women, hence the word “total.”
The Daily Graphic: They Missed the Recession
Video: Biden – “There will continue to be job losses …”
Stocks Retreat on Higher Unemployment, Lower Industry Growth Numbers
From U.S. Dept. of Labor
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline sharply in March (-663,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.1 to 8.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession began in December 2007, 5.1 million jobs have been lost, with almost two-thirds
(3.3 million) of the decrease occurring in the last 5 months. In March, job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors.
From ISM
The one industry reporting growth in March based on the NMI composite index is Real Estate, Rental & Leasing. The 17 industries reporting contraction in March — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Information; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Construction; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
From Bloomberg
U.S. stocks drifted between gains and losses after the unemployment rate climbed to a 25-year high of 8.5 percent, matching economists’ estimates. Oil retreated and the dollar gained.
Alcoa Inc. and Microsoft Corp. fell at least 1.6 percent as the government said employers cut 663,000 jobs last month, 3,000 more than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. slipped more than 1 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said changes to fair-value accounting rules won’t spur a rally in financials.
The Daily Graphic: Auto Parts Manufacturing Employment
The U.S. Dept. of Treasury announced an auto supplier support program on Thursday. In looking around the web for a picture of employment in the U.S. auto parts industry I found this at the website for the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank.
